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Ed Keller, Author of the book, The Face-to-Face Book, penned a piece over at Shelly Palmer's site on CBS’s Chief Research Officer Dave Poltrack addressing the UBS Annual Global Media and Communications Conference.
Then, in what might have been a surprise to the investors in the audience, Poltrack made this strong statement: “However, the real action is not online – it is still face-to-face.” And the correlation statistics he shared bear this out.
To begin, Poltrack cited Keller Fay data when he told the audience that 90 percent of all daily conversations about television are offline with 80 percent being face-to-face conversations. Only 2.7 percent are online conversations utilizing social media sites. That part of the story has been told before.
But this part was new and never before released. When close to 50 TV shows that have aired this fall are analyzed, the correlation between Keller Fay’s WOM metrics and the Nielsen Live+7 ratings was a strong 0.784.
In short from the author of the piece Ed Keller,:
In short, the Poltrack presentation to UBS sheds further light on the differences between online and offline conversation. Online buzz represents a relatively small slice of the conversation – conversations that in and of themselves do not reflect what’s being talked about in the real world. The real world conversations are highly correlated to outcomes – in this case, ratings. Online measurement alone is insufficient. What is needed is a broad-based measurement system that integrates online plus offline conversations to give the TV industry and the advertisers it serves a truer picture of the size and scope of the entirety of social conversation around TV. In other words, we need a “total social” metric if we truly want to understand social TV.